NYTIMES: HOUSEHOLD SURVEY CAN BE OFF BY 50%!

HERE'S WHY THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WENT DOW:  IT'S BASED ON THE "HOUSEHOLD SURVEY" ; AP:

In September, the household survey showed that the number of people who said they were unemployed fell by 456,000. The number of people who said they were working increased even more — by 873,000. 

Unlike the payroll survey, the household survey captures farm workers, the self-employed and people who work for new companies. It also does a better job of capturing hiring by small businesses. 

But the household survey is more volatile from month to month. The Labor Department surveys just 60,000 households, a small fraction of the more than 100 million U.S. households.

ACCORDING TO THE NYTIMES, THE MARGIN OF ERROR  IS.... 400,000! YUP: 

 These numbers are always tremendously volatile, but the reasons are statistical, not political. 

The volatility arises because the numbers are based on a tiny survey with a margin of error of 400,000. 

Every month there are wild swings that no one takes at face value. 

But the swings usually attract less attention because the political stakes are lower.

THIS LATEST SURVEY IS WAY OFF.

REPEAT: a tiny survey with a margin of error of 400,000...

REPEAT: a tiny survey with a margin of error of 400,000

REPEAT: a tiny survey with a margin of error of 400,000

FOLKS, THAT MEANS MAYBE THE REAL HOUSEHOLD NUMBER IS THAT  UNEMPLOYMENT ONLY FELL BY 56,000 AND THAT MAYBE ONLY 400,000 MORE PEOPLE WERE WORKING.

WHICH WOULD MEAN THAT THE UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBER WOULD HAVE GONE UP A LITTLE - EXACTLY LIKE NEARLY ALL ECONOMISTS HAD PREDICTED.

EVERY OTHER ECONOMIC INDICATOR LEADS ME TO  BELIEVE THERE HAS NOT REALLY BEEN A SURGE OF HIRING:

• THE GDP HAS  BEEN SLOWING VERY QUARTER AND IS VIRTUALLY FLAT.

• PAYROLLS ONLY INCREASED BY 114,000.

• AND BY THE OFFICIAL BLS "U6" MEASUREMENT, UNDEREMPLOYMENT DIDN'T BUDGE AND IS STILL STUCK AT AN AWFUL 14.7%.

• MILLIONS OF WORKERS HAVE LEFT  THE WORKFORCE AND ARE  NO LONGER COUNTED; IF THEY WERE COUNTED,  THEN THE CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBER WOULD BE 11%.

IOW: THE 7.8% IS LIKELY WRONG, INACCURATE.

THE HERITAGE FOLKS AGREE.