Let's fisk them, shall we:Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”They’ve been right seven elections in a row about the popular vote.
... For fair-use reasons, I can’t excerpt Lichtman’s analysis of how the 13 Keys will play out for Obama next year, so follow the link up top and read through.
He’s got The One winning on nine of 13 counts:1. No contested primary
2. Incumbency
3. No third-party candidate
4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term
5. No social unrest
6. No major scandals
7. No major foreign-policy failures
8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)
9. Little charisma by his likely opponentThe GOP wins three categories:
1. The incumbent’s party lost seats in the last House election
2. The long-term economy looks poor
3. Little charisma by the incumbent
1. No contested primaryMAYBE
2. IncumbencyOKAY - 1 FOR 2
3. No third-party candidateMAYBE
4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first termBUT OBAMA'S CHANGES FAILED TO LOWER UNEMPLOYMENT OR HEALTH COSTS WHILE ADDING 4 TRILLION TO THE DEBT AND GETTING US OUR FIRST EVER DOWNGRADE
5. No social unrestTEA PARTY
6. No major scandalsFAST AND FURIOUS
7. No major foreign-policy failuresNOT IF YOU ASK THE LEFT:
HE FAILED TO CLOSE GITMO OR BRING THE TROOPS HOME FROM IRAQ OR AFGHANISTAN AND THINGS ARE WORSE IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN AND EGYPT AND SYRIA.
8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)SEE ABOVE
9. Little charisma by his likely opponentPERRY HAS MORE CHARISMA - AND EVEN ROMNEY EVINCES MORE WISDOM OVER THINGS ECONOMIC AND MANAGEMENT IN GENERAL.
RIGHT NOW, OBAMA GETS 1 0F 13 - not 9 of 13.
HE COULD CLIMB UP TO 3 IF HE GETS NO CHALLENGE IN THE PRIMARY AND IF THERE'S NO 3RD PARTY CANDIDATE,
PREDICTION: OBAMA WILL ONLY CARRY DC.
Absolute genius. Professor Lichtman put to words and graphs what I have suspected for years. His 13 point list does provide a viable blue print for a challenger to be able to defeat an incumbent. I wonder if any of the over rated, over paid, under achieving, mostly incompetent political consultants are paying attention to this valid political scholar?
ReplyDeleteYou go, Professor Litchman. You table ROCKS!!!
Leo Fuller, Calimesa CA