NATE SILVER'S LATEST PROJECTION FOR THE HOUSE IS INTELLECTUALLY DISHONEST

NATE SILVER/NYTIMES:

House Takeover Chances

Likely Takeover [17 SEATS]

Current party has greater than 80% chance of losing seat

98% TN-6	88% VA-5	83% AR-1
97% NY-29	88% ND-1	83% WI-7
97% AR-2	88% IL-11	82% TN-8
93% KS-3	84% OH-16	82% SD-1
91% MI-1	84% MS-1	81% OH-1
91% LA-3	84% MD-1

Lean Takeover [26 SEATS]

Current party has between 60 and 80% chance of losing seat

78% IN-8	70% WV-1	64% PA-10
76% NM-2	69% PA-11	63% AZ-1
76% PA-7	69% NH-2	63% IA-3
76% CO-4	68% TX-17	63% IL-14
74% OH-15	67% SC-5	62% CA-11
74% AL-2	67% NH-1	62% GA-8
73% MI-7	66% AZ-5	61% CO-3
72% WA-3	66% PA-3	61% PA-12
71% FL-24	65% DE-1

Even Chance of Takeover [20 SEATS]

Current party has between 40 and 60% chance of losing seat

59% VA-2	54% PA-8	49% AZ-8
59% FL-8	54% MO-4	49% OH-18
58% IN-9	53% KY-6	47% ID-1
56% NV-3	53% IL-10	45% TN-4
56% WI-8	51% LA-2	43% FL-22
54% HI-1	50% NC-8	41% FL-2
54% NY-24	50% TX-23

Takeover Possible [21 SEATS]

Current party has between 20 and 40% chance of losing seat

39% NY-19	31% NY-23	24% VA-11
38% NC-11	28% NY-20	24% NY-1
37% NJ-3	28% MA-10	23% GA-2
37% OR-5	26% WA-2	22% VA-9
34% IN-2	26% NM-1	22% OH-13
32% CO-7	26% IL-17	21% WV-3
31% PA-4	25% NC-4

HERE'S WHAT'S INTELLECTUALLY DISHONEST:

THE DESCRIPTORS.

• EVERYTHING OVER 51% IS A LIKELY TAKEOVER, BUT SILVER RESERVES THAT TERM FOR RACES WHICH HAVE AN 80% LIKELIHOOD FOR GOP TAKEOVER.

• AND HE USES THE TERM "LEAN TAKEOVER" FOR RACES IN WHICH THE GOP HAS BETWEEN A 60-80% CHANCE OF TAKEOVER.

THIS IS ABSURD.

ONLY 4 REPEAT FOUR - OF THE ABOVE TAKEOVER SEATS WOULD LIKELY BE TAKEN BY A DEMOCRAT.

THAT MEANS ACCORDING TO SILVER'S NUMBERS - 64 SEATS - REPEAT EIGHTY-FOUR - WOULD BE TAKEN BY REPUBLICANS.

SO THE TRUTH IS - ACCORDING TO SILVER'S NUMBERS - A NET GAIN OF 60 SEATS IS SIMPLY "LIKELY" TO BE MADE BY THE GOP THIS NOVEMBER.

SOME ARE MORE LIKELY THAN OTHER, BUT ALL ARE NOW LIKELY.

AND MORE GAINS ARE "POSSIBLE", ACCORDING TO SILVER (SEE THE 21 IN THE LAST CATEGORY).

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!