FINAL POLLS: TORIES CLOSE TO WINNING A MAJORITY

I HOPE SO -AND NOT JUST BECAUSE I WAS THE FIRST TO PREDICT IT!:

Times/Populus has the Tories close to a majority

So the Times/Populus results are in, and they have the Tories on 37 percent (up one), Labour on 28 percent (up one), and the Lib Dems on 27 percent (down one). On a uniform national swing, this would leave us in hung parliament territory. But Tories I speak to are pretty confident that numbers like these, if replicated tomorrow, could give them a majority.

TELEGRAPH:

If you plug these numbers into a standard UNS seat calculator you get a spread of 298/86/234. However, most psephologists believe UNS underestimates the number of seats the Tories and the Lib Dems will win and overestimates the number of seats for Labour. For instance, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, using what I regard as a pretty robust seat calculator, predicts a seat allocation of 308/113/198, though this assumes the vote share will be Cons 34.2%, Lib Dems 27.5% and Labour 26.3%. Given that the Tories are over a point and a half higher than that in tonight’s polls, they should be closing in on a majority on Silver’s model.

SILVER IS VERY ACCURATE. I THINK THIS MEANS THE TORIES WIN A MAJORITY.

THE LIBERAL GUARDIAN:

A Guardian/ICM poll tonight showed the Conservatives with an eight-point lead over Labour, just short of what they need for an overall majority. The survey put the Conservatives on 36%, Labour on 28% and the Liberal Democrats on 26%.

WE SHALL SOON SEE.

I PREFER THE UKIP, BUT WOULD SETTLE FOR THE TORIES.

BTW: SIMON COWELL ENDORSED THE TORIES.