Monday, January 18, 2010

MIGHT SCOTT BROWN'S SURGE TAKE HIS ONCE IMPROBABLE BUT NOW LIKELY VICTORY INTO "TEDDY TERRITORY"?

ACCORDING TO THE PUNDITS AND THE MACHINE, COAKLEY WAS SUPPOSED TO WALK INTO THE "TEDDY-SEAT."

WE FLOATED THE POSSIBILITY OF A DOUBLE-DIGIT WIN BY SCOTT BROWN YESTERDAY. NOW, A DOUBLE-DIGIT WIN IT SEEMS LIKELY!

(ROUND UP HERE.)


SO NOW WE ASK:

CAN SCOTT BROWN WIN MASSACHUSETTS WITH A MARGIN COMPARABLE TO TEDDY'S PERENNIAL WINS?

LET'S TAKE A LOOK...

Here's how well Teddy did over the years:
  • 11/07/2006 MA US Senate Won 69.30% (+38.75%)
  • 11/07/2000 MA US Senate Won 72.61% (+59.73%)
  • 11/08/1994 MA US Senate Won 58.07% (+17.06%)
  • 11/08/1988 MA US Senate Won 64.97% (+31.04%)
  • 11/05/1982 MA US Senate Won 60.82% (+22.55%)
  • 11/02/1976 MA US Senate Won 69.31% (+40.30%)
  • 11/03/1970 MA US Senate Won 62.16% (+25.16%)
  • 11/03/1964 MA US Senate Won 74.26% (+48.84%)
  • 11/06/1962 MA US Senate - Special Election Won 52.92% (+8.42%)
THAT'S AN AVERAGE WINNING MARGIN OF 32%!

IT'S NOT LIKELY THAT SCOTT BROWN WILL DO THAT - NOT UNTIL HIS REELECTION!

BUT SCOTT BROWN COULD DO AS WELL OR BETTER THAN TEDDY DID IN HIS FIRST ELECTION - 1962'S SPECIAL ELECTION - 8.42%.
  • I PREDICT THAT SCOTT BROWN'S MARGIN WILL MATCH OR EXCEED TEDDY'S 1962 SPECIAL ELECTION MARGIN.
  • THAT MEANS : BROWN 54% ; COAKLEY 45% AND KENNEDY 1%.
BOTTOM-LINE: I'M PRAYING FOR A SCOTT BROWN VICTORY OF ANY DIMENSION!

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