ECONOMY STABILIZING - WITHOUT OBAMA'S PORKUPENDOUS STIMULATION

MAXED OUT MAMA:

... in fact, the signs of US economic stabilization (not the bottom, but getting there) are beginning to pop up like weeds.

Retail Sales. There are several significant things about January.

First, the weather was not favorable, and anyone who remembers the recent spate of weakening retail sales which were all attributed to snow and ice will get a chuckle out of the fact that retail sales rose this January. It appears that consumers are no longer as frightened of snow and/or the wrong color walls.

Second, auto sales increased, and dealer auto sales increased.

Third, the SA retail total increased from December, although it is still 9% lower than Jan 09. Fourth, electronics picked up, clothing picked up, general merchandising picked up, and restaurants & bars picked up.

The general pattern is one of recession, but the end to the steep fall in consumer spending.

Half to 2/3rds of this is driven by the fall in gas and heating oil prices. The rest is due to the fact that things wear out and the financial conservatives are beginning to spend a bit. Between the two, employed people have a little more money each week in their pockets and they may not be willing to spend recklessly, but they are spending for things that are useful and needed.

The fact that retail sales are stabilizing strongly indicates that we are way further toward the low point of this recession than to the beginning.

... Unemployment continues to rise after the trough, so from a consumer perspective, the trough will seem somewhat later. However, as retail stabilizes one big source of layoffs will drop.

Also, a quick look at Treasury receipts shows that the decline in corporate profits is beginning to level out, which of course is correlated to layoffs. This means that the rapid decline sequence (lower sales, lower profits, layoffs, lower sales, etc) is beginning to shade towards its natural end.

IT'S A LONG, FACT-FILLED POST WITH GRAPHS AND COMMENTARY. CHECK IT OUT.

OBAMA'S BIGGEST FEAR NOW IS THAT THE PUBLIC REALIZES WE'RE RECOVERING BEFORE HE CAN DOLE OUT ALL THE PORK-MONEY AND TAKE CREDIT.

JUST AS WITH IRAQ, THE LEFT WISHES THINGS GET WORSE.