- ALL WE HEARD FOR THE LAST FEW YEARS FROM THE LEFT IS THAT THE UPWARD MOVEMENT IN OIL (FROM $40/BARREL TO $140/BARREL) WAS DUE TO "PEAK OIL":
- GLOBAL DEMAND WAS OUTSTRIPPING GLOBAL SUPPLIES.
- THE CHORUS WAS : "CHINA'S AND INDIA'S GROWTH ARE SQUEEZING GLOBAL SUPPLIES."
- AND TODAY'S NEWS PROVES IT:
NYTIMES: Light sweet crude ($/barrel)120.00+15.45+14.78% At 2:49 PM ET: Sep '08 light sweet crude futures and Dec '08 gold futures are both up in after-hours electronic trading.
Sep '08 light sweet crude futures are up $15.45, or 14.78%, at $120.00 a barrel in Nymex trading
and Dec '08 gold futures are up $48.30, or 5.59%, at $913.00 an ounce.
Dec '08 corn futures closed up $0.16 today, or 3.00%, at $5.59 a bushel.
Data delayed at least 15 minutes At 3:42 PM ET
- I THINK WE NEED MORE COMMON SENSE REGULATIONS OF THIS COMMODITY/NECESSITY, SO THAT WE DON'T GET THESE HUGE FLUCTUATIONS - FLUCTUATIONS WHICH DISTORT THE ENTIRE ECONOMY.
- ONE WAY TO DO THIS WOULD BE TO PROHIBIT INVESTORS FROM BUYING OIL FUTURES.
- IF THEY WANT TO MAKE A "PLAY" IN OIL, LET THEM BUY STOCK IN AN OIL CORPORATION, AND NOT OIL ITSELF.
It seems obvious you have an agenda and/or didn't bother to look at the other contract months to notice that they did not follow suit. What happened today was very simply short covering and the laws of supply and demand. Using your logic if it's the speculators that drive it up then it's those same speculators that drive it down. You obvioulsy have no knowledge of how these markets work. Do you even know what type of oil is commonly quoted in the media and in ignorant blogs like yours? There are plenty of reasons the price for this specific oil is high and it's not the speculators. With LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL being below $100 it is no longer profitable to refine ethanol and the other types of various alternative fuel. LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL comes from the Middle East and only the Middle East. That's why a hurricane won't affect the price of this oil but will affect what it is refined into (gasoline, natural gas, heating oil). When LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL is cheap it's no longer economically viable to bring in the oil from the tar sands in Canada. Oil is finite--the price will only go up over time...
ReplyDeletejon - u get it all wrong.
ReplyDeletefirst: who goves a flying fuck what the relationship is between lsc and ethanol.
second: my point is about user demand versus investor demand. the need for oil did not rise 30% on the last week, but the demand for oil as a hedge did.
that's just a fact asshole.
as for the times when the price drops precipitously: this has never happened until oil climbed above 70.
and huuricans in the gulf effect ALL oil prices.
i have followed this. u have not - OBVIOUSLY.
and this is because investors/speculators control the oil market and not users.
now fuckoff moron.
i mean big fat dope.
my agenda is to have oil prices reflect oil demand and not demand for hedge fund manager.
ReplyDeleteif investors want to play oil let them buy stocks in oil industry companies not the oil itself.
we should no more allow investors speculate in oil than in human blood.
AS IN: it's okay to buy biomedical engineering firms' stocks but not trade in organ part or blood.
GET IT?!?!?!
I follow it everyday. The only reason I found this post is because it came in with a google alert I have set up. Your use of profanity just proves your ignorance even more--that and your inability to spell hurricane (huurican, really?). So no, the most recent hurricanes didn't impact oil prices...they impacted gas prices. Quick futures lesson for you: October contracts expired today. There were firms that were short oil contracts. If they do not close out there position they have to make delivery of oil. So in order to close there positions they had to buy the contract. The opposite is also true. Long position that had to close and sell off. Futures are not like stocks. In order to buy you need a seller--the result--a zero sum gain.
ReplyDeleteOil prices do reflect demand. A day like this is different and only affected the current expiring month. Like I said, look at the other contract months. Demand--which had been dropping since July is slowly flattening. Meaning that the market is approaching equilibrium. I am keeping this simple for you, but if you really want to dance on this subject you won't be able to keep up.
Lastly, keep buying into Fox Noise and the likes about how speculators (traders) drive the market. The fact of the matter is that the biggest speculators of oil are companies that actually make use of oil and it's refine products (i.e., airlines). Look into why Southwest continuosly offers cheap fares. It's because for years they have speculated--correctly--that prices will rise and will continue to do so because global demand is ramping up. That's just one quick simple example. Another one--Just this year alone China demand for oil is up over 15%. China--which has 20% of the world population and 5% consumption--will only need more. Compared to the U.S. which is 5% of the world population but yet accounts for over 20% of consumption. Supply and demand, genius. Cheap oil is gone. Get used to it.
jhon:
ReplyDeleteu r an asshole.
you wrote:
ignorant blogs like mine.
that was an insult; i merely returned the treatment in spades.
i follow oil everyday - have for a year.
you are wrong on the facts.
the recent spate of gulf storms ALL impacted OIL prices.
you wrote:
"keep buying into Fox Noise.."
i don't even have a tv let alone cable you fucking liberal moron. OBVIOUSLY YOU ARE THE ONE SPOTTING OUT TALKING POINTS. bwahahahaha!
and why shud i bother to spellckeck a reply to the likes of scum like you!?>!?!?
this blog is my "bar" and if you don't lie it stay the fuck away.
your china figures are laughable BS.
FACT: OIL ROSE TODAY BASED NOT ON DEMAND FOR OIL AS A SOURCE OF ENERGY BUT AS A HEDGE.
admit it.
wake up.
now fuck off.
cheap oil can return as easily as cheap real estate did.
markets go up and down.
if the democrats allowed us to drill in the usa for oil shale and off our coasts and in anwr then oil would be cheaper.
if the democrats allowed us to build coal plants and nuke plants then energy would be in greater supply and cheaper.
the chief reason energy is expensive is the democrats.
bush proposed expanding supplies in 2001 before 9/11.
and how did the democrats respond?
by spending more time trying to subpoena the folks cheney taked to then passing an energy bill.
end of story.
bush proposed expanding supplies in 2001 ---- before 9/11.
(BECAUSE HE WAS RESPONDING TO THE PREVIOUS YEAR'S CALIFORNIA ENERGY CRUNCH.)
and how did the democrats respond?
by spending more time trying to subpoena the folks cheney taLked to then passing an energy bill.
end of story.
bush proposed expanding supplies in 2001 before 9/11.
and how did the democrats respond?
by spending more time trying to subpoena the folks cheney taLked to then passing an energy bill.
end of story.
bush proposed expanding supplies in 2001 before 9/11.
and how did the democrats respond?
by spending more time trying to subpoena the folks cheney taLked to then passing an energy bill.
end of story.
DO YOU GET IT YET YA BIG FAT DOPE!?!?!
I have voted republican...I agree with drilling, but it misses the point. We only have 3%-5% of world oil reserves. Proven reserves. Period. It won't make a difference.
ReplyDeleteThe China numbers are fact. Long story short--Billions of people. Millions starting to drive and live in houses with power. Outsourcing. The great American way...
YOU DON'T KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT TRADING OIL! Very few were hedging or opening up new positions today--thousands of positions were closing! Those same "speculators" that drove down prices were taking profits. Meaning they are out of the market. Your "one year of experience" is you going to the gas station. You have no clue about the oil industry. None.
Oil Shale is a dream--a fantasy---it will not be cost effective. We have known about that stuff for years, we have known about Anwar for years, and oil companies don't put any effort into it because they won't profit. It's always the politicians talking about drilling not the oil companies--to make people like you feel better and give you a false sense of security that there is so much more oil out there and that the democrats are mean and won't let us. The oil companies know better. That's why there having windfall profits. They don't invest in Research and Development because there is no point--we're running out.
It's the same as polishing brass on the Titanic. It won't make a difference.
"Big fat dope" You can't be that much older than 14...seriously. Everything you wrote. Your phrases, your profanity, your complete ignorance of this subject matter. You are not a trader, you are not an analyst, you have said nothing intelligent about either. You have not been "following oil." YOU ARE THE ONE MAKING TALKING POINTS ABOUT A SUBJECT YOU KNOW NOTHING OF. Bush good, democrats bad. You might as well just say that.
I am a trader. I am an analyst. I am in and out of positions everyday. I lose money, I make money. My decisions are based off of the many daily/weekly/monthly reports from all over the various energy sectors and and various commodities. Facts, stats, numbers, news, supply, demand--I see it everyday. You have no clue what you are talking about. You have no clue about how markets work--the fact that more people in the markets make for a more efficient marketplace. You know none of that. You are crying about prices and passing blame like everyone else when you only need to look into a mirror. It's the consumers. It's you. It's me. Not "hedge fund managers." Maybe you do ride a bike, maybe you do read by a candle light. Good for you. But chances are you don't.
Until you have followed the commodity markets for years (plural), until you have a real education--maybe even a Finance degree with an Economics and Poli-Sci Minors (like me). Then you hace no legs to stand on. You are clueless. You copied and pasted most of your original post anyway. The numbers stuck out and you wanted to complain about something that you know nothing about let alone the facts behind the numbers. You're a joke, your blog is a joke. Keep pounding the table--I'll keep pounding the facts.
Dope.
"I am a trader. I am an analyst. I am in and out of positions everyday. I lose money, I make money. My decisions are based off of the many daily/weekly/monthly reports from all over the various energy sectors and and various commodities."
ReplyDeletemoron assholes like you bought fannie mae derivatives.
moron assholes like you drive up the price of oil even tho you have no storage facilities, no refineries and no distribution of oil.
OIL SHALE IS NO DREAM ASSHOLE.
the democrat controlled committee in the senate voted drilling for it in our Rockies DOWN - or it would be becoming a reality.
you wroter:
"it's always the politicians talking about drilling not the oil companies.."
BWAHAHAHAHA! sure. oil companies don;t want to drill. right.
fuck off ya big fat dope!
GENIUS traders like you have helped ruined the mortgage industry and are ruining the economy by driving up the of of all energy.
scum like you should be forced to pick veggies in mexico.
HERE'S A LITTLE SIMPLE FACT YOU CAN'T IGNORE:
bush proposed expanding supplies in 2001 before 9/11.
and how did the democrats respond?
by spending more time trying to subpoena the folks cheney taLked to then passing an energy bill.
end of story.
DO YOU GET IT YET YA BIG FAT DOPE!?!?!
GO PLY YOUR IDIOCY IN THE MARKETS.
ASSHAT TRADERS LIKE YOU ARE WHY THE ECONOMY IS HURTING.
"Bush good, democrats bad. You might as well just say that."
ReplyDeleteasshole: this blog is HIGHLY critical of bush.
i coined the Dubya stands for wimp.
you don't know shit about me and all you do know about oil is WRONG.
i am a democrat. i don't watch TV let alone fox, and i have been very critical about bush.
EVERYTHING you have ascribed to me and written about me IS FUCKING WRONG.
you think you're smart but you're a piece of stupid shit.
if you fuck with me one more time you will; regret it.
i have your IP.
TRY ME
"I have your IP!" Ha! You are 14!
ReplyDeleteGo pop zits and keep cutting and pasting stuff in your blogs. You have no original thoughts on any subject. Get an education. Learn more than four words that aren't profane.
i am 52 with two degrees from major universities.
ReplyDeleteevery thing you have "guessed" about me was wrong.
EVERYTHING. THIS SAYS A LOT ABOUT YOU.
YOU WROTE:
"Quick futures lesson for you: October contracts expired today. There were firms that were short oil contracts. If they do not close out there position they have to make delivery of oil. So in order to close there positions they had to buy the contract. The opposite is also true. Long position that had to close and sell off. Futures are not like stocks. In order to buy you need a seller--the result--a zero sum gain."
THIS PROVES MY POINT THAT TRADING BY SPECULATORS WHO ARE USING OIL AS A HEDGE AND NOT DEMAND FOR OIL AS AN ENERGY SOURCE IS WHAT'S BEHIND TODAY'S VERY HIGH OIL PRICES.
NO FUCK OFF YOU BIG FAT DOPE.
You are not educated. Someone educated does not write the way you do. Someone educated uses an original thought. You copy and paste and pawn it off as your stance on an issue.
ReplyDeleteP.S. Oil is down today...enjoy.
52--great! You really are pathetic.
hey fuckwad jon:
ReplyDeleteeverything you asserted about me was WRONG.
everything you argued about oil was WRONG.
i am educated with a b.a. and an m.a. from major universities.
cursing at and about scumbags like you is not limited to =teenagers.
you started the whole negative tone of pour dialog by calling me ignorant.
now fuck off.
oil goes up and down - today is no exception.
ReplyDeletebut the drive up from 65 to 145 was the result of fuckwads like you jon.
speculators, hedge funds, etc - AND NOT UNDERLYING ACTUAL DEMAND/USE/NEED FOR OIL AS A SOURCE OF ENERGY.
that is a freakin fact.
the run up yesterday proves it, and your own comments reflect that:
you yourself said covering short positions drive it up.
please; try to understand what you yourself posted.
now please wake up or fuck off.
I challenge you to spend just one day at the NYMEX to see what happens. Ask questions. It's a real reality check.
ReplyDeleteHedge Funds have been around for years. Much longer than the most recent run up in oil. Nobody wakes up and says, "I am going to drive the price of oil up today." It doesn't work like that.
You have no knowledge of how a free market society works. You are not educated. Let alone on this matter.
I know what I said about the short covering. Oil is not acting alone. You don't understand how the market works. Plain and simple. There are so many techincal and fundamental factors affecting prices that it most likely beyond you to even understand as evident by your many posts. All you do is copy a source and say, "LOOK HERE--IF IT'S HERE IT MUST BE TRUE!"
Maybe you are educated at "Major" Universities. But I doubt it.
Stop repeating everything you've already said. Write an intelligent post. Stop copying information. Get a better understanding of how markets work.
Oil is now down $3. And I am now dumber for having continued to argue with you. Come on--send me another post with "fuckwad" and "dope" and "asshole" and "fuck off".
I've got your IP...ha!
JON; U R A "fuckwad" and "dope" and "asshole" and "fuck off".
ReplyDeleteHAPPY!?
you failed to directly respond to even one of my points, and in one comment act actually proved one of my points.
you offered that the run-up was cause by end of mointh short covering which proves my point that speculation (and not insatiable energy needs) is driving the price of oil.
case closed.
you are parasitical scum.
we should no more allow trading in oil by scum like you and hedge funds then allow it in human blood.
oi, is a vital utility for the world's economy and not a commodity for scum like you to speculate on.
if scum like you want to make a play in oil, then you should only be permitted to buy oil stocks.
only actual industrial users of oil should be allowed to buy oil.
we need to take it off the nymex and every other market in the world.
play it on INTRADE of you want to gamble.
scumbag.
RECAP OF HOW FUCKING WRONG YOU WERE:
i don't watch fox or have a tv.
i have been critical of bush repeatedly on this blog and am not a blind gop follower or a partisan - in fact i am a registered democrat.
i am not a teen but in my 50's.
i have repeatedly posted original thoughts on this blog and am not merely a cut and paster.
and....
you inadvertently admitted the gist of this post is correct.
the dems are responsible for any shortage in energy on this country: they have blocked new nuclear, coal pants and drilling in the rickies and off shore and in anwr.
you are probably some bleeding heart green lib twenty-something know it all who knows jack shit and has proven it in this thread.
JON; U R A "fuckwad" and "dope" and "asshole" and "fuck off".
ReplyDeleteHAPPY!?
you failed to directly respond to even one of my points, and in one comment act actually proved one of my points.
you offered that the run-up was cause by end of mointh short covering which proves my point that speculation (and not insatiable energy needs) is driving the price of oil.
case closed.
you are parasitical scum.
we should no more allow trading in oil by scum like you and hedge funds then allow it in human blood.
oi, is a vital utility for the world's economy and not a commodity for scum like you to speculate on.
if scum like you want to make a play in oil, then you should only be permitted to buy oil stocks.
only actual industrial users of oil should be allowed to buy oil.
we need to take it off the nymex and every other market in the world.
play it on INTRADE of you want to gamble.
scumbag.
RECAP OF HOW FUCKING WRONG YOU WERE:
i don't watch fox or have a tv.
i have been critical of bush repeatedly on this blog and am not a blind gop follower or a partisan - in fact i am a registered democrat.
i am not a teen but in my 50's.
i have repeatedly posted original thoughts on this blog and am not merely a cut and paster.
and....
you inadvertently admitted the gist of this post is correct.
the dems are responsible for any shortage in energy on this country: they have blocked new nuclear, coal pants and drilling in the rockies and off shore and in anwr.
you are probably some bleeding heart green lib twenty-something know it all who knows jack shit and has proven it in this thread.