- The dollar is up this year.
- Unemployment is down.
- Exports are up.
- Gasoline inventory is up - by historical average.
- Oil inventory is up.
- Oil reserves are up - Venezuela announced today they have another 30 BILLION barrels of oil. (And remember Bakken, too.)
- And, there are signs that OPEC and Saudi Arabia will raise output.
There is no logical reason for oil to go up given ALL this news.
It is a BUBBLE. Driven by speculation.
And it will burst.
Sooner than you think.
Unless... the REAL reason oil is so dear is fear of a USA preemptive attack on Iran. Not so much the preemptive attack -- or the phony PUBLIC recriminations which will follow it (coinciding with PRIVATE thanks!).
But the conventional retaliatory strikes which Iran will inevitably attempt to inflict on the oil assets of the Gulf States. If they can wipe out a lot of the oil assets, then the price might go to $500/barrel.
IMHO: This is now the ONLY plausible explanation for the continued oil price SPIKE.
At one time I felt sure Bush would do the right thing and neutralize Iran with a preemptive strike. Now, I am not so sure. not at all. He has more or less let Iran eff-up Iraq and Lebanon. And let Assad get away with murder - over and over again.
Bush is a wimp - that's what Dubya stands for, it seems.
I hope the oil speculators know something I don't. About us attacking Iran, that is...
Stay tuned...
Howdy from the War on Terror,
ReplyDeleteAttacking Iran is roundly a bad idea because we really don't have to. We merely have to wait them out. We have isolated them and are working day-by-day to close the pathways. They don't have the Sunni cashflow and their economy is in shambles.
The next revolution must be done by Iranians not via force. They must do it internally. It can literally happen in 72 hours. And it will.
But for us to play a role in it cannot work...