Russian scientists disown global warming

The report in Russian English immediately below was originally headed: "Global Warming to Serve Politicians". It refers only briefly to a Russian language website and appears to be a response to the Russian site. It would be nice to get a proper translation of the Russian site but I append the Babelfish translation below.

Babelfish translations always have their lighter moments and I like the way "Kyoto" is referred to as "Kiotskiy". Sounds fair to me! "Albert gor" sounds an improvement on Al Gore too! The Russian spokesman seems to be saying at one point that they are fortunate in Russia not to have the computing power which would enable them to waste their time on "models".

I rather agree with that. I have often noted that poor raw data is commonly associated with very complex statistics in published research reports in my own field. I have never been much persuaded by such reports. It's usually a case of putting lipstick on a pig -- with apologies to my providers of bacon.

I would be cautious of the word "officially" in the article below. Nothing is official in Russia until Vlad says so. But the great skepticism of Russian scientists in the matter is well-known. If it is confirmed that the Russian Academy of Sciences officially rejects the IPCC conclusions, it would be a real blow to the IPCC. Regardless of what is true of Russia's government, there is nothing wrong with Russia's scientists

Russian Academy of Sciences officially claims main reasons of global warming are totally different from that announced by UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Experts of IPCC's working group concluded that main reason of global climate warming was emission of various greenhouse gases. Such a conclusion was reported during a press-conference by one of the research supervisors, who based his words on numerous research results and mathematical modeling of climate changes.

IPCC's report describes in detail possible effects of climatic changes on environment, human beings and society and predicts further changes, as well as suggests some mitigation measures. The essence of suggested "therapy" is lowering greenhouse gases' emissions. IPCC experts calculated that as little as 0.5% of world GDP (Gross Domestic Product) would be enough for development and assimilation of technologies, allowing decrease of gaseous emissions in 2030 (reaching figures of 1990).

Experts claim reducing greenhouse gases' emissions is not very difficult: Russian emissions lost 37% compared to emissions of 1990. However, UN officials forget to mention that new technologies have nothing to do with such an abrupt emission drop - this effect was due to steep fall of total production and long-term economic stagnation. Some experts admit that developing countries, e.g. China and India, can develop their economy and at the same time reduce greenhouse gases' emissions only when receiving funds from abroad. IPCC's working group expresses confidence that energy-saving technologies allow Russian industry to put down the use of natural gas for 230 million cubic meters per year. As for funds for such technological breakthrough, experts suggest to withdraw them from housing and public utilities by canceling some state subsidies.

IPCC's experts emphasize that Kyoto Protocol promotes introduction of energy-saving technologies and development of alternative power engineering, however they fail to explain how fulfilling the protocol can reduce greenhouse gases' emissions, since only 161 countries, responsible for 61% of world emissions, ratified Kyoto Protocol as of February 2006. Other scientists claim this share of 61% would reduce due to rapid development of China, India and other countries, which do not participate in Kyoto Protocol.

UN experts commented nonconcurrence of their conclusions with point of view of researchers from Russian Academy of Sciences, who tend to think that main reasons of global warming lie in natural factors. IPCC's working group said they have done an enormous work on mathematical modeling, considering many climatic parameters, and Russian Academy of Sciences had neither computers, nor models to make right conclusions.

We would like to remind our readers that UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize 2007 together with former US vice-president Albert Gore "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change".

Source

Babelfish translation of the Russian language website follows:

Global warming on the service of the politicians

The conclusions about the basic reason for the global warming of climate, made an intergovernmental appraisal group for climate variation with THE UNITED NATIONS (MGEIK), do not coincide with the official position in this question of the Russian academy of sciences.

The experts of working group MGEIK (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC) came to the conclusion that the basic reason for global warming - emission of greenhouse gases. On this Igor bashmakov reported at the press conference in RIA- news one of the authors of report. According to him, this conclusion is based on the results of the studies, carry ouied by hundred scientific different countries of peace, and the analysis of the mathematical models of climate variation.

In the report, prepared BY MGEIK to 2007, are in detail described the possible consequences of climate variation - for nature, man and society as a whole, the forecast of its further change is made and measures for the softening of its consequences are proposed. Essence of these measures - reduction in the ejections of greenhouse gases. As it reported another author of the report Of kirsten Of khalsnes (Denmark), according to the calculations of group, it will be required only by 0,5% world VLADIMIR PUTIN for development and introducing the technologies, which make it possible to 2030 to attain reduction in the ejections to the level of 1990.

Igor bashmakov noted that stated problem of attaining not too it is difficult: "today in Russia the emission of greenhouse gases they decreased by 37% in comparison with 1990", he said. However, it did not refine that this decrease occurred not due to the introduction of new technologies, but due to sharp drop in the total volume of production in our country and prolonged economic stagnation. Kirsten Of khalsnes recognized that the developing countries, such as China and India, can develop their economy, simultaneously decreasing the ejections of greenhouse gases only with the condition of financing their economy because of the boundary.

Igor bashmakov expressed confidence that in Russia it is possible to reduce the consumption of natural gas on 230 million cu. m per year due to the energy-saving technologies. Where to take money for the introduction of these technologies, explained one additional author of report, the economist Aleksandr Novikov based on the example ZHKKH. In its opinion, this it would be possible to make due to the means, isolated today by state on the subsidy.

Igor bashmakov emphasized that to the introduction of energy-saving technologies and to the development of alternative power engineering contributes The kiotskiy protocol; however, I could not explain, as its fulfillment will make it possible to dostich' the stated goals on reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases, if one considers that as of on 14 February, 2006, the protocol was ratified by 161 country of peace, which are together critical approximately only for 61% of world-wide ejections. And this portion, apparently, will decrease, takeing into account the high rates of the development of such countries as China and India, which are not participants In the kiotskogo protocol.

"Kiotskiy protocol - this is the trial step, which will help us to understand that they can make several states, and such countries as China, they will pass to the energy-saving technologies and without The kiotskogo protocol", he said.

With it did not agree Kirsten Of khalsnes, which noted that The kiotskiy protocol "created many economic initiatives and allowed many countries to improve economic indices".

Relative to the noncoincidence of conclusions for the basic reason for global climate variation in the working group MGEIK and the scientific Russian academies of sciences, which consider that the present warming up bears natural nature, Igor bashmakov he said that "experts MGEIK they made many calculations they built the mathematical models, which consider many climatic parameters... in our academy of sciences there is neither such models nor such computers, on which them it was possible to cheat in counting".

Let us recall that the intergovernmental appraisal group for climate variation was honored the Nobel Peace Prize of 2007, which it subdivided with the former Vice President OF THE USA Albert gor. As said in the official communication of Nobel committee, so high award MGEIK it was honored "for the efforts and the work for the propagation of knowledge about climate variations and the adoption of measures for purposes of the suppression of the propagation of negative processes".


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