MORE HUMAN BIRD FLU CASES IN INDIA AND EGYPT

IT'S GETTING WORSE: Jump in Suspect H5N1 Patients in Murshidabad West Bengal

- There had been 305 persons with Fever/URI. 51 had exposure history. They are being followed up. They have no signs of lower respiratory tract infection.

- 81 persons with fever/URI have reported in the hospital, out of which 16 have contact history. They are being followed up. They have no signs of lower respiratory tract infection.

The above description of H5N1 suspect patients in Murshidabad has dramatic increases in the number of patients with symptoms and exposure history (see satellite map here and here). The Ministry of Health and Welfare report for January 29 when compared to January 28 has an increase in patients with exposure history of 9 to 51. Hospitalized patients with exposure history jumped from zero to sixteen. Although these patients have no signs of lower respiratory tract infections, many appear to be new patients, in part because they were not included in the report fro the previous day. Moreover, mild H5N1 cases in Egypt were reported last year and the patients did not develop lower respiratory tract symptoms, but H5N1 was isolated.

In addition, patients in Malda have chest pains and many have been transferred to Calcutta. Although there may be small variations in H5N1 from different regions, the H5N1 in India is related to the Uva Lake strain and H5N1 isolated from Pakistan, where human cases have been reported, which include the longest sustained H5N1 transmission chain reported to date.

IT'S ONLY A MATTER OF TIME...