The NYTIMES wrote that 80% of the GOP caucusers were evangelicals.
Huckabee only got 34% of the GOP vote.
SO... if ALL his votes were evangelicals, then he only got 40% of them - meaning 60% thought another candidate was better than Preacher Huckabee.
That's hardly a ringing endorsement of Huckabee by evangelicals.
If Huckabee got some non-evangelical support, then his evangelical support is even lower than 40%.
This has a few consequences: first, it PROVES that the evangelical base is NOT MONOLITHIC and NOT UNIFORMLY BEHIND HUCKABEE; second, it suggests that Romney's team is correct when they say that Huckabee won because Huckabee's get-out-the-vote effort was better than theirs.
Elections are won by GOTV and everyone - including me - estimated that Romney and Hillary would get better efforts because of their money and tram experts and organization.
In the next few primaries, the candidate with the best organization on the ground will win - excluding major mistakes (whether forced or unforced).
I think Romney and Hillary may both make comebacks because of their money and organizations.
And I give the edge to Romney: he can always just write a check; Hillary has to raise money and that might becoming quite difficult.
I don't think Huckabee and Rollins can keep the ball rolling. Their support is not deep and it is not wide.
ADDENDUM: I think Mitt ought to more effedtively use Jim DeMint and as many other southern conservatives as possible - to show he is going to govern as a conservative.
Earlier post on Huck's intrinsic weaknesses as a candidate HERE.
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According to two different posts at The Corner, Huck's numbers with Evangelicals are:
ReplyDelete"Huckabee took 14% of the vote and came in fourth in the Iowa caucus among non-evangelicals according to the NBC Republican exit poll [other polls come out about the same]. Huckabee’s principle voting block was female born-again Christian Republicans living in non-urban rural areas with a population below 10,000. I dearly love such people, but demographically in the country at large there aren’t that many of them."
"When Huckabee moves out of caucus Iowa and into primary state America, he’s going to get killed."
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"60% of voters were evangelicals. Huck beat Romney among them 45-19%. 40% weren’t evangelicals. Romney beat Huck among them 33-13%."
YES; I LINKED TO THAT CORNER PIECE IN AN EARLIER POST.
ReplyDeleteLOWRY'S NUMBERS WERE LOWER THAN THE NYTIMES' (WHICH CAME LATER) BUT THE POINT REMAINS: HUCK IS A LOSING PROPOSITION.
ROMNEY DID WELL.
and Happy New year PAL!!
ReplyDelete