JUST HOW MANY WARS WILL THERE BE IIN LEBANON THIS SUMMER?

Definitely one between jihadists and the Lebanese army:

The latest trouble in Lebanon began in a rundown refugee camp called "Cold River," where U.S. officials fear Al Qaeda is trying to ignite the war-ravaged country into an inferno once again... This time, the fighting is north of Tripoli and between the fledgling Lebanese army and Sunni groups loyal to Osama Bin Laden who are holed up in the Nahr Al-Bared ("Cold River") Palestinian refugee camp. "It's going to be a very hot summer in tiny Lebanon," predicts Fawaz Gerges, a Lebanese-born Sarah Lawrence College scholar, who is researching jihadis in the country. "You have Al Qaeda-inspired groups ready to die. These people fight until the end."

AQ is opening up a southern front, just to really ignite the country. We're not too worried about AQ taking over South Lebanon - we don't think Hezbollah will give it to them. As for the second war: anti-Syrian exiles are identifying Assad as the culprit behind last week's Katyusha attack on Kiryat Shemona. So no way this can go poorly.

[Read an extended version of this post at Mere Rhetoric]