WHO MIGHT BE THE NEXT POPE - UPDATED

********UPDATE 4/07/05*******

Here is the LINK TO CURRENT ODDS.

Here are my LATEST PICKS - IN ORDER - BASED ON MY ANALYSIS, BELOW:

Count Christoph von Schoenborn, (Austria, 60); Juan-Luis Cipriani-Thorne Peru, 62); Jean Louis Tauron [you must scroll down with this link] (France, 62); Vinco Puljic (Bosnia, 60); Josef Bozanic (Croatia 56); Crescenzio Seppe (Italy, 62); Angelo Scola (Italy, 64). [Links are for official Vatican bio's.]

Much of this post was originally researched and blogged in February)

THIS POST IS UPDATED FREQUENTLY: LOOK BELOW!

Pope JPII has been a Pope of great historic dimensions - within and without his Church. He helped defeat the USSR, and for this the whole of humanity owes him a great debt. As Michael Ledeen wrote in NRO's The Corner:

For Catholics, John Paul II will obviously be an inspiration for generations, and even those of us who do not share his faith have been ennobled and inspired by much of what he said and did. But for the entire world, he will forever stand as a symbol of the power of individuals standing firm for freedom. "Be Not Afraid" is indeed the phrase we will associate with him, as it was the phrase that inspired millions of people to risk all against tyranny.

On other issues his record has been mixed, especially of late: I think that the Vatican has dropped the ball on their sex scandals, and that a return to a married clergy is needed to save the Church in Europe from disappearing.

This Pope has not acted well on these fronts - in my humble AND NON-CATHOLIC opinion. (I am not Catholic, but have read A LOT about the Church's history - especially about it from the 5th Century to the 20th.) ALL IN ALL HE WAS, THOUGH: TRULY GREAT. GOD BLESS HIS SOUL. (More thoughts of mine on PJPII HERE and HERE.)

Here is a list of the SEVEN Cardinals (and their birth-dates) who I feel might most likely be selected (in order of likelihood. You will not see these names in the MSM - mine is a list based on UNCONVENTIONAL thinking. BUT REMEMBER: NOBODY PREDICTED KAROL WOJTYLA! Links to mainstream picks are below) :

Juan-Luis Cipriani-Thorne (Peru, 12/28/43);
Jean Louis Tauron [you must scroll down with this link] (France, 4/3/43);
Polycarp Pengo (Tanzania 8/5/44);
Vinco Puljic (Bosnia-Herzegovina, 9/8/45);
Josef Bozanic (Croatia 3/20/49);
Crescenzio Seppe (Italy, 6/2/43);
Angelo Scola (Italy, 11/7/41).

(Links take you to official English Bio's/cv's and a photo.)

These are the youngest Cardinals with the best pedigrees/resumes, and they're from countries with special histories and cultures.

A majority of Cardinals in the conservative College of Cardinals may feel that the background and ethnicity of three of these potential popes (the South American, the African, and the two from the Balkans) gives each of them a unique potential to deal with the issues and problems that the Church is likely to confront in the near future: maintaining conservative doctrine while innovating the Church's apparatus in order to continue to grow in the Third World and to begin growing again (instead of shrinking) in the old bastions of Catholicism - like most of Western Europe, (especially France - where the Church is under severe threat of vanishing, and where a "French Pope" might make a HUGE difference). The Italian Cardinals I have listed are, naturally, "hometown favorites."

Other bloggers may have more insight into the current political intrigues of the CoC's. Or gossip. This list merely represents my somewhat educated guess. I think the CoC's will pick a conservative from a country or region that has seriously dealt with all forms of outreach and a Cardinal who has been good at it.

Additionally, the Church has been growing most in Africa and South America - which may give these two Cardinals an edge that they might not have enjoyed a few decades ago. All of these cardinals "look" papal.

******* UPDATE 3/31/05: Here's a link to the current odds on who the next pope might be.

IMHO: Most on this particular oddsmaker's list are TOO OLD! In my opinion, a Cardinal is too old if he is older than 67. In my opinion, the CofC will ONLY pick an old Cardinal to be the next Pope is there is a long deadlock. I do NOT think that is likely - the Church is in great need of an ENERGETIC and young Pope who can be the kind of Pope that JPII was before he was shot (in an assassination attempt that was plotted by the USSR).

*******MORE HERE******* from the UK Independent.

More HERE and HERE at ONE HAND CLAPPING. WELCOME CHRENKOFF READERS!

UPDATE: MAINSTREAM IDEAS WHICH ARE CONTRARY TO MINE CAN BE FOUND HERE.

And WELCOME Dean's World readers, (hat tip to Joe Gandelman of THE MODERATE VOICE). There's more to read there, so click HERE. AND WELCOME ONE-HAND CLAPPING READERS; if you're not one yet YOU SHOULD BE - EVERYDAY!

4/3/05*******UPDATE*******: Here's a link to an extensive list of CofC insiders some consider favorites. I think they are ALL TOO OLD.

THE NEW YORK TIMES WEIGHS IN HERE.

WASHINGTON TIMES PICKS HERE.

UPDATE 4/4/05: CURRENT ODDS (but remember - NO ONE had Karol Wojtyla on their lists the last time):

Dionigi Tettamanzi (Italy) 11-4; Francis Arinze (Nigeria) 11-4; Oscar Maradiaga (Honduras) 9-2; Joseph Ratzinger (Germany) 7-1; Claudio Hummes(Brazil) 9-1; Jaime Lucas Ortega (Cuba) 14-1 ; Count v.Schoenborn (Austria) 14-1 ; Ennio Antonelli (Italy) 14 ; Jose Policarpo (Portugal) 16; Giovanni Battista Re (Italy) 16 ; Dario Hoyos (Colombia) 18; Crescenzio Sepe (Italy) 18 ; Giacomo Biffi (Italy) 18 ; Keith O'Brien (Scotland) 20 ;

Godfried Daneels (Belgium) 20 ; Jorge Bergoglio (Argentina) 20 ; J-Marie Lustiger (France) 20 ; Angelo Scola (Venice) 20; Tarcisio Bertone (Italy) 20 ; Norberto Carrera (Mexico) 25 -1 ; Angelo Sodano (Italy) 25 ; Ivan Dias (India) 25 ; Juan Luis Cipriani (Peru) 25 ; Carlo Martini (Italy) 25 ;

Miloslav Vlk (Czech Republic) 33 ; Sean Patrick O'Malley (Boston) 33 ; Cormac Murphy-O'Connor (UK) 33 ; Marco Ce (Italy) 40 ; Wilfred Napier (South Africa) 40; George Pell (Australia) 50 ; Ruini (Italy) 66 ; Edward Cassidy (Australia) 80 ; Silvano Piovanelli (Italy) 80; Edward Clancy 100-1 ; Diarmuid Martin (Ireland) 100 ; Philippe Barbarin 100 ; Agostino Cacciavillan 125 ; Jose Mara Rouco Varela (Spain) 125-1

MY PERSONAL FAVORITES ARE IN BOLD.

4/4/05 - UPDATE #2 - More analysis of the popular/conventional "middle-of-the-road" picks here - from NPR and the National Catholic Reporter.

*4/4/05 - UPDATE #3: FT weighs in with this: Cardinals are beginning to talk about the next Pope (hat tip DRUDGE).

**4/4/05 - UPDATE # 4: WELCOME CNN viewers! (YUP: this blog was featured on JUDY WOODRUFF'S INSIDE POLITICS today), and welcome JACKSON'S JUNCTION readers who may have seen the CNN segment over at Trey Jackson's INCREDIBLE video-linking blog. If you don't check out Jackson's Junction everyday for the latest must-see video- CHANGE YOUR HABITS! YOU SHOULD!

UPDATE#5***** 4/5/05 ***** UPDATE: Click here to find out why the conventional wisdom is WRONG, and the CofC will pick a YOUNG Cardinal to be the next Pope.

4/5/05 UPDATE #6: Click HERE for an article about how the THIRD WORLD Cardinals might effect the election of the next Pope.