NEW INCENTIVE FOR IRAN IS A SUBTLE MULTILATERAL ULTIMATUM

By having the USA join in with the Europeans - and by sweetening the "incentive pot" - the Bush Administration is, IN EFFECT, giving Iran ONE LAST CHANCE.

CHENEY said Friday that if Iran doesn't live up to its "international obligations to forego a nuclear program, then obviously we'll have to take stronger action."

And also, just importantly, this concerted effort means that the European leaders will each have an "out" with their electorates: they'll be able to say that there was NO RUSH TO THE UNSC - or to preemptive military action, if-and-when that becomes necessary.

In other words, now the ball is back in Iran's court, AND THE STAKES ARE HIGHER AND CLEARER: Cooperate now or the UNSC will order serious international sanctions.

I still firmly believe that Putin MUST BE BROUGHT INTO LINE in this matter. The Europeans and Bush must tell Putin to cancel - or at least SUSPEND - Russia's nuclear contracts with Iran, or Russia will be banished from the G8, or worse.

ONE OTHER POINT: This proves - ONCE AGAIN - that Bush is not a unilaterialist who prefers military force. Too bad the loony Left will NEVER acknowledge that!

UPDATE: IRAN QUICKLY SIGNALS INTRANSIGENCE ON NUKES

"Reuters" and CNN and FT already report that Iran is signaling that they will NOT do what the EU and the USA wants them to do - (or that they are attempting a variation on Saddam's and Kim's cheat-and-retreat tactics).

The ball is back in the EU's court.

I expect that AFTER Bolton is confirmed, that the matter will be brought up to the UNSC, and that the UNSC will authorize international sanctions - UNLESS Russia vetoes it! If Russia vetoes it, then I expect that the USA will preemptively destroy ALL of Iran's nuclear sites ASAP with a sustained cruise missile attack. The question is: "WHEN?"

In the coming weeks, Syria and Hizballah will attempt to distract the USA and the EU and the UNSC. And we might have to deal with Syria first - before we launch a military attack against Iran. And the Lebanon situation might not come to head until MAY- when Lebanon holds elections.

That might give Iran until June - but certainly something definitive must happen not later than the autumn.

If Putin cancels Russia's nuclear contracts with Iran, and abstains on the UNSC amendment, then we might give sanctions a chance to work - a year, maybe: A year of sanctions might help Iran's democracy movement, and might push Iran toward TRUE democracy. ALSO: while the sanctions against Iran are in effect we might turn outn attention to North Korea.

Stay tuned.