"ALL CAPS IN DEFENSE OF LIBERTY IS NO VICE."

Tuesday, April 05, 2005

WHO MIGHT BE THE NEXT POPE - UPDATED

********UPDATE 4/07/05*******

Here is the LINK TO CURRENT ODDS.

Here are my LATEST PICKS - IN ORDER - BASED ON MY ANALYSIS, BELOW:

Count Christoph von Schoenborn, (Austria, 60); Juan-Luis Cipriani-Thorne Peru, 62); Jean Louis Tauron [you must scroll down with this link] (France, 62); Vinco Puljic (Bosnia, 60); Josef Bozanic (Croatia 56); Crescenzio Seppe (Italy, 62); Angelo Scola (Italy, 64). [Links are for official Vatican bio's.]

Much of this post was originally researched and blogged in February)

THIS POST IS UPDATED FREQUENTLY: LOOK BELOW!

Pope JPII has been a Pope of great historic dimensions - within and without his Church. He helped defeat the USSR, and for this the whole of humanity owes him a great debt. As Michael Ledeen wrote in NRO's The Corner:

For Catholics, John Paul II will obviously be an inspiration for generations, and even those of us who do not share his faith have been ennobled and inspired by much of what he said and did. But for the entire world, he will forever stand as a symbol of the power of individuals standing firm for freedom. "Be Not Afraid" is indeed the phrase we will associate with him, as it was the phrase that inspired millions of people to risk all against tyranny.

On other issues his record has been mixed, especially of late: I think that the Vatican has dropped the ball on their sex scandals, and that a return to a married clergy is needed to save the Church in Europe from disappearing.

This Pope has not acted well on these fronts - in my humble AND NON-CATHOLIC opinion. (I am not Catholic, but have read A LOT about the Church's history - especially about it from the 5th Century to the 20th.) ALL IN ALL HE WAS, THOUGH: TRULY GREAT. GOD BLESS HIS SOUL. (More thoughts of mine on PJPII HERE and HERE.)

Here is a list of the SEVEN Cardinals (and their birth-dates) who I feel might most likely be selected (in order of likelihood. You will not see these names in the MSM - mine is a list based on UNCONVENTIONAL thinking. BUT REMEMBER: NOBODY PREDICTED KAROL WOJTYLA! Links to mainstream picks are below) :

Juan-Luis Cipriani-Thorne (Peru, 12/28/43);
Jean Louis Tauron [you must scroll down with this link] (France, 4/3/43);
Polycarp Pengo (Tanzania 8/5/44);
Vinco Puljic (Bosnia-Herzegovina, 9/8/45);
Josef Bozanic (Croatia 3/20/49);
Crescenzio Seppe (Italy, 6/2/43);
Angelo Scola (Italy, 11/7/41).

(Links take you to official English Bio's/cv's and a photo.)

These are the youngest Cardinals with the best pedigrees/resumes, and they're from countries with special histories and cultures.

A majority of Cardinals in the conservative College of Cardinals may feel that the background and ethnicity of three of these potential popes (the South American, the African, and the two from the Balkans) gives each of them a unique potential to deal with the issues and problems that the Church is likely to confront in the near future: maintaining conservative doctrine while innovating the Church's apparatus in order to continue to grow in the Third World and to begin growing again (instead of shrinking) in the old bastions of Catholicism - like most of Western Europe, (especially France - where the Church is under severe threat of vanishing, and where a "French Pope" might make a HUGE difference). The Italian Cardinals I have listed are, naturally, "hometown favorites."

Other bloggers may have more insight into the current political intrigues of the CoC's. Or gossip. This list merely represents my somewhat educated guess. I think the CoC's will pick a conservative from a country or region that has seriously dealt with all forms of outreach and a Cardinal who has been good at it.

Additionally, the Church has been growing most in Africa and South America - which may give these two Cardinals an edge that they might not have enjoyed a few decades ago. All of these cardinals "look" papal.

IMHO: Most on this particular oddsmaker's list are TOO OLD! In my opinion, a Cardinal is too old if he is older than 67. In my opinion, the CofC will ONLY pick an old Cardinal to be the next Pope is there is a long deadlock. I do NOT think that is likely - the Church is in great need of an ENERGETIC and young Pope who can be the kind of Pope that JPII was before he was shot (in an assassination attempt that was plotted by the USSR).

More HERE and HERE at ONE HAND CLAPPING. WELCOME CHRENKOFF READERS!

UPDATE: MAINSTREAM IDEAS WHICH ARE CONTRARY TO MINE CAN BE FOUND HERE.

And WELCOME Dean's World readers, (hat tip to Joe Gandelman of THE MODERATE VOICE). There's more to read there, so click HERE. AND WELCOME ONE-HAND CLAPPING READERS; if you're not one yet YOU SHOULD BE - EVERYDAY!

THE NEW YORK TIMES WEIGHS IN HERE.

UPDATE 4/4/05: CURRENT ODDS (but remember - NO ONE had Karol Wojtyla on their lists the last time):

Dionigi Tettamanzi (Italy) 11-4; Francis Arinze (Nigeria) 11-4; Oscar Maradiaga (Honduras) 9-2; Joseph Ratzinger (Germany) 7-1; Claudio Hummes(Brazil) 9-1; Jaime Lucas Ortega (Cuba) 14-1 ; Count v.Schoenborn (Austria) 14-1 ; Ennio Antonelli (Italy) 14 ; Jose Policarpo (Portugal) 16; Giovanni Battista Re (Italy) 16 ; Dario Hoyos (Colombia) 18; Crescenzio Sepe (Italy) 18 ; Giacomo Biffi (Italy) 18 ; Keith O'Brien (Scotland) 20 ;

Godfried Daneels (Belgium) 20 ; Jorge Bergoglio (Argentina) 20 ; J-Marie Lustiger (France) 20 ; Angelo Scola (Venice) 20; Tarcisio Bertone (Italy) 20 ; Norberto Carrera (Mexico) 25 -1 ; Angelo Sodano (Italy) 25 ; Ivan Dias (India) 25 ; Juan Luis Cipriani (Peru) 25 ; Carlo Martini (Italy) 25 ;

Miloslav Vlk (Czech Republic) 33 ; Sean Patrick O'Malley (Boston) 33 ; Cormac Murphy-O'Connor (UK) 33 ; Marco Ce (Italy) 40 ; Wilfred Napier (South Africa) 40; George Pell (Australia) 50 ; Ruini (Italy) 66 ; Edward Cassidy (Australia) 80 ; Silvano Piovanelli (Italy) 80; Edward Clancy 100-1 ; Diarmuid Martin (Ireland) 100 ; Philippe Barbarin 100 ; Agostino Cacciavillan 125 ; Jose Mara Rouco Varela (Spain) 125-1

MY PERSONAL FAVORITES ARE IN BOLD.


*4/4/05 - UPDATE #3: FT weighs in with this: Cardinals are beginning to talk about the next Pope (hat tip DRUDGE).

**4/4/05 - UPDATE # 4: WELCOME CNN viewers! (YUP: this blog was featured on JUDY WOODRUFF'S INSIDE POLITICS today), and welcome JACKSON'S JUNCTION readers who may have seen the CNN segment over at Trey Jackson's INCREDIBLE video-linking blog. If you don't check out Jackson's Junction everyday for the latest must-see video- CHANGE YOUR HABITS! YOU SHOULD!


4/5/05 UPDATE #6: Click HERE for an article about how the THIRD WORLD Cardinals might effect the election of the next Pope.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi. I've never visited your site before this. I'm a happy, active Roman Catholic. Judging by past papal elections, I don't agree with your guesses on the next one. Most of them are simply too young. There's a theory out there in RC circles that it is preferable to vote for older cardinals so that the "turnover" is more often than the 26 years we've had with JPII. Your observations are astute, though, and you may be correct after all. Regarding your comments about the Church in Europe, married clergy won't change a thing. It hasn't gained more members significantly for the Episcopal Church (nor has admitting women to the priesthood)and frankly, Europe continues to sink the further it bends into the "world's" ever-changing standards of morality. The only hope for Europe, in my humble opinion, is the evangelization of its young people by the more traditional church movements. Thanks for your interest!

Reliapundit said...

nice comments. good points.

i do think the CofC will more greatly value youth on this occassion. a yoputhful pope - like JPII when he was selected - will help in every way.

also: the RC Church had married clergy for along LONG time - like the first thousand years, so it could do it again, and it would help recruit priests and evangelization.

The Episcopals have married clergy - therefore in real terms it HAS helped, absoulutely and UNDENIABLY. CLergy of married and celibate will ALWAYS be bigger and wider appeal than ONLY celibate clergy. that's just a fact.

and the RC birth rate needs a boost in europe: priests and nuns are among the truest believers - AND THEY NEED TO REPRODUCE.

time will tell, and all shall unfold according the Gid's plan.

Anonymous said...

It is widely agreed that a married clergy would help reinvigorate the Catholic Church. Been a part of the both the Catholic and Protestant branches of Christianity by heritage and marriage and have never come across a Protstant clergyman that did not have several children.
It is also a fact that a significant proportion of Protestant and Orthodox clergy are the sons of clergy.

Anonymous said...

When you bring up age as an asset to be the next Pope, you are discriminating by age.
I don't know how old Cardinal Ratzinger is but I think he would be an excellent candidate.

A married cleric would never be elected Pope.
What planet are you from???????

Anonymous said...

if the next pope is cipriani then opus dei will control the church and this will be the culmination of their grand plan. He will definitely not resign from opus dei no matter what public statements he makes. He will be directed by echevarria the prelate of opus dei

Anonymous said...

the next Pope will be Cardinal Martino...can anyone tell me why? I want to see if there are similar thoughts out there.

Michael J.W. Stickings said...

Perhaps you mean Cardinal Martini? He might be a bit too "liberal" for these cardinals. Plus, he's had serious health problems recently. A much more likely Italian papabile -- and my pick to win it all -- is Tettamanzi, who might be a compromise "third way" candidate between the Ratzinger conservatives and reformist liberals. He's solid theologically, and just progressive enough economically. Plus, he's extremely likeable. For my reasoning behind this, check out my own blog:

www.the-reaction.blogspot.com

I'm a new Straussian blogger. This is a great side, A.B., and I hope you find mine interesting, too.

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